J.P. Morgan Brings Nigeria Back Into Global Bond Benchmark After 11 Years, $17.47bn Debt Qualifies
By Iroyin Yoruba Television News Desk
Nigeria has returned to a major J.P. Morgan government-bond benchmark more than a decade after its naira-denominated debt was removed from the international investment bank's flagship emerging-market index, in a development that could increase the visibility of Nigerian government securities among international investors.
Vice President Kashim Shettima, who represented President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the 2026 BRICS Summit in New Delhi, has also highlighted Nigeria's broader efforts to strengthen its international economic relationships and attract investment.
The latest bond-market development follows J.P. Morgan's introduction of the new Government Bond Index–Emerging Markets Edge, known as GBI-EM Edge.
Under the new benchmark, Nigeria has been assigned a 7.4 per cent weighting, with approximately $17.47 billion worth of eligible Federal Government of Nigeria bonds represented across 16 instruments.
The development is significant because Nigeria's naira-denominated government bonds have been outside J.P. Morgan's main local-currency emerging-market government bond benchmark since 2015.
However, the development needs to be understood correctly.
Nigeria has not been returned to J.P. Morgan's flagship GBI-EM Global Diversified index.
Instead, the country has been included in the separate GBI-EM Edge, a benchmark specifically designed to track local-currency government bonds from frontier markets that are generally not represented in the main emerging-market benchmark.
Even with that distinction, the development is important for Nigeria because inclusion in an internationally followed bond index can place the country's domestic debt more directly in front of global portfolio managers and institutional investors.
It also comes at a time when Nigeria's domestic bond market has been attracting renewed attention following economic reforms, improved market conditions and changes in investor confidence.
What J.P. Morgan's New Index Means
The GBI-EM Edge is being introduced as a benchmark for local-currency government bonds issued by frontier-market economies.
The benchmark is expected to cover approximately $330 billion in government debt across 26 countries.
The countries represented include several major frontier economies from Africa, Asia and other regions.
The index is intended to give investors a structured way to track and potentially gain exposure to government debt in markets that are often classified below the larger emerging economies in terms of market size, liquidity and international investor participation.
The distinction between an emerging market and a frontier market is important.
Emerging markets such as China, India, Brazil and other large economies already have substantial representation in global investment portfolios.
Frontier markets are generally smaller, less liquid and less represented in major international investment benchmarks.
They can nevertheless offer higher potential yields and faster economic growth, although they also carry greater risks.
J.P. Morgan's new benchmark is designed to make this group of markets easier for international investors to analyse and compare.
Nigeria's 7.4 Per Cent Weighting
Nigeria's 7.4 per cent weighting places it among the more significant countries in the new benchmark.
The country has approximately $17.47 billion of eligible government debt represented through 16 instruments.
The weighting does not mean that J.P. Morgan is lending Nigeria $17.47 billion.
It also does not mean that the Nigerian government has received new money simply because the country's bonds have entered the index.
The figure refers to the value of eligible Nigerian government bonds represented within the index calculation.
This distinction is important because index inclusion works through investment benchmarks.
Large international investment funds often compare their portfolios with established indexes.
Some funds are structured to track those indexes directly, while others use them as benchmarks when deciding how much exposure to different countries and markets they should hold.
When a country's bonds are added to an index, investors who track that benchmark may need to consider those securities as part of their portfolio allocation.
That can increase international attention and potentially improve demand.
Why Nigeria Was Removed In 2015
The latest development has historical significance because Nigeria previously had a place in J.P. Morgan's local-currency government bond index.
Nigeria was removed from the flagship GBI-EM benchmark in 2015.
The removal occurred during a period when conditions in Nigeria's foreign-exchange market and bond market created difficulties for international investors.
Since then, the Nigerian financial system has undergone major changes.
The country has experienced currency reforms, changes in foreign-exchange market arrangements, periods of high inflation, changes in monetary policy and several efforts to deepen the domestic debt market.
The return to a J.P. Morgan benchmark therefore represents a very different environment from the one that existed when Nigeria was removed.
This Is Not A Return To The Flagship Index
One of the most important points for Nigerian investors to understand is that the latest development should not be described as a full reinstatement in J.P. Morgan's flagship GBI-EM Global Diversified index.
The GBI-EM Edge is a separate benchmark.
It was created to provide greater representation for frontier markets whose local-currency government bonds are not normally included in the main benchmark.
Nigeria's inclusion is therefore significant, but it is not equivalent to being restored to the main emerging-market index.
This distinction matters because the scale of potential international investment flows can differ between benchmark categories.
Nevertheless, the new index could give Nigeria a new channel through which global investors can assess and potentially access its domestic debt.
Why Index Inclusion Matters To Nigeria
Government bond indexes may sound technical to ordinary Nigerians, but they can influence the way international investors view a country's financial market.
Large global investors need systems for comparing markets.
They may look at inflation, interest rates, currency performance, fiscal policy, economic growth, market liquidity and political conditions before deciding where to invest.
Indexes provide another layer of information.
When Nigeria is included in a recognised international benchmark, its bonds become part of a formal universe that investors can monitor.
For funds that track the index, inclusion can also create a direct incentive to hold Nigerian securities.
The actual amount of money that flows into Nigeria will depend on the investment strategies of individual funds and the attractiveness of Nigerian bonds relative to other countries.
Index inclusion does not automatically guarantee a large inflow of foreign capital.
But it can remove one barrier to visibility.
Potential Impact On Foreign Investment
One possible benefit is increased foreign investor participation in Nigeria's local-currency bond market.
Foreign investors have historically played an important role in emerging and frontier financial markets.
They can provide additional demand for government securities and improve market liquidity.
If international funds increase their holdings of Nigerian government bonds, the demand for those securities could strengthen.
Higher demand can support bond prices and potentially lower yields, although the actual effect depends on many factors.
These include global interest rates, investor risk appetite, inflation expectations, exchange-rate movements and Nigeria's fiscal outlook.
It is therefore too early to conclude that index inclusion will immediately reduce the government's borrowing costs.
The more realistic interpretation is that Nigeria has gained another channel through which international investors can evaluate and potentially access its domestic debt.
The Connection With Nigeria's Economic Reforms
The development also comes against the background of economic reforms introduced by the Federal Government and the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Nigeria has been attempting to improve the functioning of its foreign-exchange market, strengthen revenue collection, manage public finances and attract investment.
The government has argued that these reforms are designed to create a more stable foundation for economic growth.
International investors, however, judge reforms not only by government announcements but by actual market conditions.
They look at whether the naira market is functioning efficiently, whether foreign exchange can be obtained when needed, whether inflation is declining and whether fiscal policies are sustainable.
The inclusion in the J.P. Morgan benchmark suggests that Nigeria's domestic bond market has met the eligibility requirements for the new frontier-market index.
It does not mean that every economic problem has been solved.
Nigeria Still Faces Significant Financial Challenges
Despite the positive development, Nigeria continues to face significant economic pressures.
Inflation remains an important concern.
Government borrowing remains substantial.
Debt-servicing costs continue to require close attention.
The exchange rate remains important because foreign investors holding naira-denominated securities are exposed to currency movements.
An investor can earn a high naira interest rate and still suffer a loss when converting the investment back into dollars if the naira depreciates significantly.
This is one reason why local-currency bond markets can offer high yields but also carry substantial risk.
The attractiveness of Nigerian bonds therefore depends on more than their coupon rates.
International investors must consider the entire economic environment.
Nigerian Bond Yields Remain Attractive
Nigeria's local-currency debt market offers relatively high yields compared with many developed-market government bonds.
Recent market data showed Nigeria's seven-year government bond yield around 16.8 per cent in the latest available trading session before the September 14 development.
Treasury-bill rates have also remained elevated.
At the Central Bank of Nigeria's September 9 auction, the 91-day Treasury bill stop rate was 16.30 per cent, the 182-day rate was 16.50 per cent and the 364-day rate was 16.62 per cent.
The one-year instrument attracted particularly strong demand, with subscriptions of approximately ₦2.54 trillion against an offer of ₦500 billion.
That represented more than five times the amount offered.
These numbers illustrate why Nigerian debt can attract investors seeking relatively high returns.
However, high yields generally compensate investors for higher risks.
Nigeria's interest rates therefore need to be considered alongside inflation and currency conditions.
The Importance Of The Naira
For an international investor, investing in a naira-denominated bond creates exposure to the Nigerian currency.
If the naira strengthens against the investor's home currency, the investor could benefit from the currency movement.
If the naira weakens, however, the value of the investment in foreign-currency terms can decline.
This is one of the key reasons foreign investors closely monitor Nigeria's foreign-exchange market.
The Central Bank of Nigeria has made efforts to improve transparency and market functioning in the foreign-exchange system.
A more predictable currency market can make local-currency assets more attractive to international investors.
But currency risk cannot be eliminated.
The naira remains influenced by oil revenues, foreign investment, import demand, external financing, monetary policy and global market conditions.
Oil Prices Also Matter
Nigeria's economy remains heavily influenced by crude oil.
Higher oil prices can improve government revenues and strengthen the country's external position.
Lower oil prices can have the opposite effect.
International investors therefore monitor the oil market when assessing Nigerian government bonds.
A stronger oil sector can improve foreign-exchange availability and government revenue, while disruptions to production can increase pressure on the country's fiscal and external accounts.
The recent recovery in Nigerian crude production is therefore relevant to the broader investment picture.
But the country is also trying to reduce its dependence on crude oil through reforms and diversification.
Why Local-Currency Debt Is Important
The development is particularly relevant because it concerns naira-denominated government debt.
Borrowing in local currency can reduce some of the risks associated with foreign-currency debt.
When a government borrows in dollars or another foreign currency, it must ultimately obtain that foreign currency to service the debt.
If the local currency depreciates significantly, the domestic cost of repaying foreign-currency debt can increase.
Local-currency borrowing shifts some of the risk.
The government can service naira debt using naira revenues.
However, domestic borrowing also has costs.
If government borrowing becomes too large, it can compete with private companies for available capital and potentially keep domestic interest rates high.
Nigeria therefore has to balance the benefits of developing local-currency financing with the need to control borrowing costs and maintain private-sector access to credit.
A Bigger Role For The Domestic Bond Market
The inclusion of Nigeria in the GBI-EM Edge could support efforts to deepen the country's domestic bond market.
A deeper market can provide the government with more options for financing infrastructure and other public expenditure.
It can also create more investment opportunities for pension funds, banks, insurance companies and individual investors.
Nigeria's pension industry has already become an important institutional investor in domestic government securities.
Greater international participation could add another layer of liquidity.
However, attracting foreign investors should not come at the expense of domestic investors.
The government must maintain a balanced market in which Nigerian institutions and citizens can also participate.
What It Means For Government Borrowing
If foreign investor demand for Nigerian government bonds increases over time, the government could potentially benefit from a broader investor base.
A wider investor base can reduce dependence on a small group of domestic institutions.
It can also improve the government's ability to issue securities at different maturities.
But international capital can be volatile.
Foreign investors can enter a market quickly when conditions are favourable and withdraw when global risk appetite changes.
Nigeria therefore cannot rely exclusively on foreign portfolio flows.
The country needs a stable domestic investor base as well.
The New Index Is Designed For Frontier Markets
The structure of the GBI-EM Edge reflects the different characteristics of frontier economies.
The benchmark is expected to include approximately $330 billion of debt from 26 countries.
Eligible bonds will have to meet minimum size and maturity requirements.
The index will also have a maximum country weighting of 8 per cent.
Nigeria's 7.4 per cent weighting is therefore close to the upper limit.
That suggests Nigeria is one of the larger eligible debt markets within the new frontier index.
The presence of a country-weight cap also means that the benchmark is designed to limit excessive concentration in any one market.
This can make the index more attractive to investors seeking diversified exposure.
Africa's Large Share Of The Index
Africa is expected to account for almost 45 per cent of the new index.
That is significant because it demonstrates the growing importance of African frontier markets to international investors.
For many years, African local-currency bond markets received relatively little international attention compared with larger markets in Asia and Latin America.
The new benchmark could change that by bringing several African markets into one investment framework.
Nigeria is likely to be one of the most closely watched African markets because of the size of its economy and domestic debt market.
Other African countries may also benefit from increased international attention.
Why Investors Are Interested In Frontier Markets
Frontier markets can offer higher yields than developed markets.
They can also offer opportunities for investors who believe that economic reforms and development will lead to higher asset values over time.
But the risks are also greater.
Frontier economies can experience political changes, currency volatility, liquidity problems, inflation shocks and external financing pressures.
Investors therefore demand higher returns to compensate for those risks.
The new J.P. Morgan index provides a way for investors to evaluate these markets collectively.
The potential yield of the new index is expected to be significantly higher than conventional emerging-market benchmarks.
That higher yield is part of the attraction but also reflects the risks associated with frontier economies.
Nigeria's Position Compared With Other Countries
Nigeria will not be the only major African market in the new benchmark.
Egypt and Morocco are among the other African economies expected to receive significant representation.
The index will also include frontier markets in Asia and other regions.
This means Nigeria will be competing for international investor attention.
Investors will compare Nigerian bonds with securities from Egypt, Vietnam, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and other countries.
Nigeria's interest rates, inflation, currency performance and fiscal position will therefore influence how much international capital ultimately enters the country.
Index inclusion provides visibility, but Nigeria still has to remain competitive.
The Importance Of Inflation
Inflation is one of the biggest factors investors will consider.
When inflation is high, the real value of fixed interest payments declines.
For example, a bond paying a high nominal interest rate may provide a much smaller real return if consumer prices are rising rapidly.
Investors therefore look at both nominal yields and inflation expectations.
Nigeria's efforts to reduce inflation will be important for the long-term attractiveness of its domestic bond market.
If inflation continues to moderate, Nigerian bonds could become more attractive in real-return terms.
If inflation accelerates again, investors could demand higher yields.
Monetary Policy Also Matters
The Central Bank of Nigeria plays an important role in the bond market through monetary policy.
Interest-rate decisions affect the returns available on Treasury bills and government bonds.
Higher policy rates can make fixed-income securities more attractive but can also increase borrowing costs for the government and private sector.
Lower rates can reduce borrowing costs but may also reduce the attractiveness of naira assets to some investors.
The central bank therefore has to balance inflation control, financial stability and economic growth.
International investors monitor these decisions closely.
Nigeria's Debt Sustainability
Another issue that will remain under scrutiny is Nigeria's debt sustainability.
Nigeria faces significant domestic and external financing requirements, making debt management an important part of the country's economic policy.
The inclusion in a global bond index does not remove those obligations.
Instead, it creates another potential channel through which the government can access a wider investor base.
The government must therefore ensure that increased access to investors is accompanied by responsible borrowing and debt management.
Why The Development Matters To Ordinary Nigerians
At first glance, the return of Nigerian government bonds to an international benchmark may seem like a story only for bankers and investors.
But the implications can eventually reach ordinary Nigerians.
Government borrowing affects the cost of financing public projects.
Interest rates affect mortgages, business loans and consumer credit.
Foreign investment affects the demand for the naira.
Government bond yields also influence the returns available to pension funds and other institutional investors.
If a stronger bond market helps the government finance infrastructure at more sustainable costs, the wider economy could benefit.
But if borrowing remains expensive, the government may continue to spend a large portion of its revenue servicing debt.
That is why the quality of the country's fiscal management remains crucial.
Potential Benefits For Pension Funds
Nigeria's pension industry is another potential beneficiary of a deeper bond market.
Pension funds need long-term assets that can provide predictable returns.
Government bonds are an important part of that investment universe.
Greater liquidity and a broader range of instruments can give pension managers more options for managing long-term portfolios.
International participation can also improve price discovery.
When more buyers and sellers participate in a market, prices may reflect market information more efficiently.
However, pension funds must continue to manage risk carefully because government securities are not completely free of economic or inflation-related risks.
Could Nigeria's Borrowing Costs Fall?
It is possible that increased demand for Nigerian bonds could put downward pressure on yields over time.
If more investors want to buy government securities, the government may not need to offer as high a return to attract buyers.
But that outcome is not guaranteed.
Global interest rates, inflation, exchange rates and investor sentiment will remain important.
The government will also need to maintain confidence in its fiscal policies.
Investors may respond positively to index inclusion initially but later reduce exposure if economic conditions deteriorate.
The long-term effect will therefore depend on whether Nigeria can sustain the improvements that have made its bonds eligible for the new benchmark.
A Sign Of Changing Investor Perception
The latest development can nevertheless be interpreted as evidence that international investors are paying closer attention to Nigeria's local financial market.
The country's domestic bond market has become increasingly sophisticated.
Nigeria has an established government securities market, pension-fund industry, banking system and financial-market infrastructure.
The challenge has been converting that domestic depth into greater international participation.
The GBI-EM Edge could help bridge that gap.
It gives global investors a recognised benchmark through which Nigerian government debt can be evaluated alongside other frontier markets.
The Difference Between Visibility And Investment
It is important not to confuse index inclusion with guaranteed investment.
A benchmark creates an investment framework.
Individual investors and funds still decide how much money they want to allocate.
Some funds may track the index.
Others may use it only as a reference.
Some investors may decide that Nigeria's yields are attractive.
Others may consider currency or political risks too high.
The eventual financial impact will therefore emerge gradually as investors respond to the new benchmark.
What Nigeria Must Do Next
The Nigerian government will need to maintain the policies that support investor confidence.
That includes improving fiscal transparency, strengthening revenue mobilisation, controlling unnecessary expenditure and maintaining a predictable debt-management strategy.
The government also needs to continue developing the domestic capital market.
A more efficient market can benefit both government and private-sector borrowers.
Regulators will need to ensure that market infrastructure remains reliable and transparent.
The Central Bank of Nigeria and Debt Management Office will remain important institutions in maintaining confidence in the financial system.
Maintaining Access To Foreign Investors
Nigeria will also need to ensure that international investors can enter and exit the market efficiently.
Foreign investors are more likely to participate when they can understand the rules and access foreign exchange when they need to repatriate legitimate investment proceeds.
Any deterioration in market transparency or foreign-exchange liquidity could reduce the benefits of index inclusion.
The government therefore has an incentive to maintain policies that improve market confidence.
A Potential Step Toward Deeper Integration
The inclusion of Nigerian bonds in the GBI-EM Edge is not a final destination.
It could be the beginning of a broader process through which Nigeria becomes more deeply integrated into international local-currency debt markets.
If Nigeria can sustain macroeconomic stability, deepen its financial markets and improve investor confidence, it could strengthen its position within the wider global bond universe.
But that process will require consistency.
International investors typically reward countries that maintain credible policies over long periods.
Sudden policy reversals can quickly undermine confidence.
Nigeria's Previous Experience Provides A Lesson
Nigeria's 2015 removal from the J.P. Morgan benchmark provides an important lesson.
International investors pay close attention to market accessibility and economic conditions.
A country can be included in a major index and later removed if it no longer meets the necessary requirements.
The latest inclusion should therefore encourage Nigerian authorities to maintain the conditions that support market accessibility.
It is not simply a trophy.
It is an opportunity that comes with the responsibility of sustaining a credible investment environment.
What Investors Will Watch
Over the coming months, investors are likely to watch several key indicators.
These will include inflation, the naira exchange rate, crude-oil production and prices, government revenue, fiscal deficits, interest rates and foreign-exchange liquidity.
They will also monitor political developments and the implementation of economic reforms.
The performance of Nigeria's domestic bond market will provide another important signal.
If yields decline while investor participation increases, it could suggest stronger confidence.
If yields rise sharply because investors demand greater compensation for risk, the benefits of index inclusion could be limited.
What The New Benchmark Could Mean For Africa
The significance of the GBI-EM Edge extends beyond Nigeria.
A major global index dedicated to frontier-market local-currency debt could increase international attention toward local-currency bond markets across Africa.
For African countries seeking to finance infrastructure and development, deeper local-currency bond markets can provide an important source of capital.
It can also reduce reliance on foreign-currency borrowing.
However, local-currency markets require strong institutions and credible monetary and fiscal policies.
Countries that want to attract international investors will need to demonstrate that their bond markets are transparent, accessible and sufficiently liquid.
A New Opportunity For Nigerian Financial Institutions
Nigerian banks, asset managers, pension funds and investment firms may also benefit from increased international attention.
International investors entering Nigeria will need local market knowledge and infrastructure.
This can create opportunities for Nigerian financial institutions to provide custody, brokerage, research, market-making and investment-management services.
A larger market can therefore support the development of the wider financial-services industry.
The Road Ahead
Nigeria's inclusion in the GBI-EM Edge is an important development, but its ultimate value will be determined by what happens next.
The country now has an opportunity to use increased international visibility to deepen its capital market and attract longer-term investment.
But the government must also recognise that foreign portfolio capital can be sensitive to changes in market conditions.
The most sustainable solution is therefore to create an economy where investors are attracted not simply because of high interest rates but because they see long-term opportunities in Nigeria.
That requires economic growth, stable institutions, infrastructure, productive businesses and a predictable regulatory environment.
Conclusion
Nigeria's inclusion in J.P. Morgan's new Government Bond Index–Emerging Markets Edge represents one of the country's most notable recent developments in the international fixed-income market.
With a 7.4 per cent weighting and approximately $17.47 billion of eligible government bonds represented across 16 instruments, Nigeria is positioned to become one of the more significant markets in the new frontier-bond benchmark.
The development marks the return of Nigerian local-currency government debt to a J.P. Morgan benchmark more than a decade after the country's bonds were phased out of the bank's flagship emerging-market index in 2015.
However, it is important to emphasise that Nigeria has not returned to the GBI-EM Global Diversified index.
The new GBI-EM Edge is a separate benchmark created specifically for frontier markets.
Even so, the inclusion gives Nigeria a new level of international visibility and could encourage global investors to examine the country's naira-denominated government securities more closely.
The timing is also significant.
Nigeria's bond market currently offers relatively high yields, while the government and monetary authorities have been implementing reforms intended to improve the functioning of the economy and financial markets.
The country is therefore entering the new international benchmark with a bond market that already attracts substantial domestic investor interest.
The major question is whether international participation will grow.
If global investors allocate additional capital to Nigerian government bonds, the wider investor base could improve liquidity and potentially reduce the government's borrowing costs over time.
But those benefits are not guaranteed.
Foreign investors will continue to assess Nigeria's inflation, currency stability, fiscal position, debt-servicing obligations, oil revenues, interest rates and broader political and economic conditions.
The naira will be particularly important because foreign investors holding local-currency bonds face currency risk.
A high bond yield can be attractive, but significant currency depreciation can reduce or even eliminate the return when an international investor converts the investment back into another currency.
Nigeria must therefore continue improving the credibility and efficiency of its foreign-exchange market.
The government must also manage its debt carefully.
International index inclusion should not be interpreted as permission to borrow without limits.
Instead, it should be viewed as an opportunity to broaden the investor base and potentially obtain financing under better conditions.
The development also has wider implications for Nigeria's capital market.
A deeper government bond market can provide investment opportunities for pension funds, insurance companies, banks, asset managers and individual investors.
It can improve market liquidity and price discovery while strengthening the role of domestic capital markets in financing government and private-sector activity.
For Nigeria's economy, the benefits could extend beyond the bond market if increased investor confidence translates into broader participation in the country's financial system.
The new J.P. Morgan benchmark is also significant for Africa.
With African markets expected to account for a large share of the GBI-EM Edge, the benchmark could bring greater international attention to local-currency debt markets across the continent.
That could encourage more African countries to develop deeper domestic bond markets and reduce their dependence on foreign-currency borrowing.
For Nigeria, however, the immediate challenge is to ensure that the opportunity is sustained.
The country's previous experience shows that international index inclusion can be lost when market conditions deteriorate.
The return to a J.P. Morgan benchmark should therefore be treated as a responsibility as much as an achievement.
Nigeria will need to maintain transparent market rules, improve fiscal management, strengthen foreign-exchange liquidity, control inflation and continue developing a credible domestic financial system.
If those conditions are maintained, the country's position in the frontier-market bond universe could become an important component of a broader strategy to attract international capital.
The development also provides a fresh signal about how international investors are viewing Nigeria.
The country remains a high-risk market, but it is also a large economy with substantial natural resources, a large domestic market, a developing financial sector and significant long-term investment potential.
The new benchmark gives investors another structured way to assess that potential.
For the Nigerian government, the priority now should be to convert increased international visibility into sustainable financing and economic growth.
For investors, the development provides another reason to examine Nigeria's bond market, but not a reason to ignore the risks.
And for ordinary Nigerians, the most important outcome will ultimately be whether stronger capital-market participation contributes to a healthier economy, lower financing pressures and greater investment in productive activities.
The inclusion of Nigeria in J.P. Morgan's GBI-EM Edge is therefore more than a technical change to an investment index.
It is a sign that Nigeria's domestic government-bond market is being brought back into a wider international investment conversation.
What happens next will depend on whether Nigeria can maintain the reforms, stability and market conditions needed to turn that renewed international attention into lasting economic value.