By Iroyin Yoruba Television
Nigeria’s economic activity expanded for the fourth consecutive month in September, with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 53.0 points from 52.7 points in August.
The latest reading indicates that business activity remained above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, while growth was recorded across the Industry, Services and Agriculture sectors.
The September figures were contained in the latest PMI report released by the Central Bank of Nigeria and provide an early indication of how businesses performed as the economy moved toward the final quarter of 2026.
The improvement in the composite index was supported by stronger new orders, output, employment and inventories, although the data also showed that businesses continued to face pressure from rising input costs.
The September reading represents a continuation of the recovery in private-sector activity recorded during the middle of the year. The composite PMI had risen to 52.7 points in August after earlier readings below the 50-point threshold, and the increase to 53.0 in September indicates that the expansion continued into the third quarter.
The CBN's PMI measures changes in business conditions across major areas of the economy. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
In September, the Output Index stood at 53.9 points, while the New Orders Index reached 53.7 points.
The New Orders figure was particularly significant because it recorded the strongest month-on-month improvement among the major components of the composite index.
New orders are an important indicator of demand because they reflect the volume of business being generated by companies and organisations surveyed during the period.
The increase suggests that businesses experienced stronger demand for goods and services during September.
The Employment Index also remained above the 50-point threshold, recording 51.5 points.
Although the employment reading indicated continued expansion, the figure was weaker than some of the other major components of the survey.
The data therefore shows that improved economic activity did not translate into an equally strong increase in employment during the month.
The Stock of Raw Materials Index stood at 52.1 points, indicating that businesses continued to build or maintain inventories.
The Suppliers’ Delivery Time Index was recorded at 52.7 points, suggesting an improvement in supplier response times during the month.
The combination of stronger orders, output and inventories indicates that businesses were operating in an environment of expanding activity, while improved supplier delivery times could help companies manage production and distribution more efficiently.
The September results were also broad-based across the economy.
Of the 32 subsectors covered by the CBN survey, 23 recorded expansion, while nine recorded contraction.
Educational Services recorded the strongest growth among the subsectors surveyed.
The broad distribution of growth means that the September expansion was not limited to one particular part of the economy.
Industry recorded a notable improvement during the month.
The Industry PMI increased to 52.0 points in September from 50.6 points in August.
This marked the second consecutive month of expansion in industrial activity.
The industrial reading is significant because manufacturing and other industrial activities are closely connected to production, employment, supply chains and domestic investment.
The improvement from August indicates that industrial businesses experienced stronger conditions in September.
The Industry Output Index increased to 53.2 points.
New Orders within the industrial sector stood at 51.7 points, while the Employment Index reached 51.1 points.
The Raw Materials Inventory Index also returned to expansion territory, rising to 51.1 points from 49.4 points in August.
The improvement in raw-material inventories suggests that industrial businesses were able to rebuild or maintain stocks after the previous month's contraction in this area.
The Suppliers’ Delivery Time Index stood at 52.7 points, also pointing to improved supply conditions.
Ten of the 16 industrial subsectors surveyed recorded expansion during September.
Water Supply, Sewerage and Waste Management recorded the strongest growth among the industrial subsectors.
However, six industrial subsectors contracted.
Chemical and Pharmaceutical Products recorded the steepest decline among the industrial categories.
The mixed industrial performance shows that the recovery was not uniform across all areas of production.
Some businesses experienced stronger demand and activity, while others continued to operate under more difficult conditions.
The Services sector also remained in expansion territory.
The Services PMI stood at 53.2 points in September, compared with 53.3 points in August.
Although the September figure was marginally lower than the August reading, it represented the third consecutive month of expansion in services activity.
Nine of the 11 services subsectors surveyed recorded growth.
Educational Services recorded the strongest expansion among the services subsectors.
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services recorded the highest contraction within the services category.
The continued expansion in services is significant because the sector represents a major part of Nigeria's economic activity.
Businesses operating in areas such as education, professional services, transportation, communications and other service-related activities contribute significantly to employment and domestic demand.
The relatively stable services reading suggests that the sector continued to provide support to the broader economy in September.
Agriculture also remained firmly in expansion territory.
The Agriculture PMI stood at 53.1 points in September, compared with 53.4 points in August.
Although the agricultural reading declined slightly, the sector recorded its 26th consecutive month of expansion.
The length of the agricultural expansion makes the sector one of the most consistent contributors to the PMI's positive readings.
Four of the five agricultural subsectors surveyed recorded growth in September.
Livestock recorded the strongest expansion.
General Farming Activities recorded a PMI reading of 54.6 points, while New Orders stood at 54.4 points.
Employment in agriculture remained in expansion territory at 51.4 points, and inventories recorded 52.1 points.
The Agricultural Support Services subsector was the only agricultural category to record contraction during the month.
The continued expansion of agriculture has implications for food production, rural employment and the availability of raw materials for businesses.
Agricultural performance can also influence food prices and the cost of inputs used by manufacturing and other sectors.
The September PMI data, however, also highlighted continuing cost pressures facing businesses.
The composite input price index increased by 0.8 points during the month, while the output price index declined by 0.5 points.
The difference between input and output prices indicates that businesses were facing higher costs while selling prices did not increase at the same pace.
For companies, this can create pressure on operating margins.
Businesses may face higher expenses for raw materials, transportation, energy, labour and other production inputs. If they cannot fully transfer those additional costs to customers through higher prices, their margins can come under pressure.
The data therefore presents two developments at the same time: economic activity is expanding, but some businesses continue to face cost challenges.
The issue is particularly important for manufacturers and agricultural businesses because their operations can be highly sensitive to changes in input prices.
Agriculture recorded particularly strong input-price pressure compared with the other major sectors.
The sector's input price index stood at 65.8 points, while its output price index was 58.5 points.
This indicates that agricultural businesses continued to experience significant cost increases even while activity remained above the expansion threshold.
Services also recorded input-price pressure, while the Industry sector experienced changes in production-related costs during the month.
The PMI therefore does not represent a simple picture of economic improvement.
Instead, it shows an economy where demand and activity are strengthening across several sectors while businesses continue to deal with production costs and uneven performance between subsectors.
The New Orders Index provides one of the clearest indications of improving demand.
At 53.7 points, it rose during September and recorded the strongest month-on-month improvement among the major composite indicators.
Stronger new orders can encourage businesses to increase production, maintain inventories and recruit additional workers.
However, the employment index at 51.5 points suggests that the increase in hiring remained more moderate than the improvement in demand.
This difference could indicate that businesses were initially responding to stronger orders by increasing output with existing capacity rather than making large additions to their workforce.
The CBN data also showed that supplier delivery times improved.
A Suppliers’ Delivery Time Index of 52.7 points indicates that companies experienced better supplier response conditions during September.
More reliable supply chains can reduce delays and make it easier for businesses to meet customer orders.
For manufacturers, this can be particularly important because delays in obtaining raw materials can interrupt production and increase costs.
The September figures also provide information about the direction of the economy as Nigeria entered the final quarter of 2026.
The fourth consecutive month of composite expansion suggests that the improvement recorded during the middle of the year continued into September.
However, the data does not indicate that all economic challenges have disappeared.
Nine of the 32 subsectors surveyed contracted.
Industrial activity, although expanding overall, remained mixed across individual subsectors.
Agriculture continued its long period of expansion but experienced a slight decline in its PMI reading.
Services remained stable but did not record a major acceleration.
At the same time, input-price pressures remained a significant concern.
These factors mean that the strength of the economic expansion will depend on whether stronger demand can be sustained while businesses manage their operating costs.
For consumers, the economic implications of stronger business activity can become more meaningful if expansion translates into additional employment, increased production and greater availability of goods and services.
For businesses, continued growth in new orders could support investment and production decisions if demand remains stable.
For policymakers, the PMI data provides an additional indicator for monitoring economic conditions alongside inflation, foreign exchange developments, output data and other macroeconomic measures.
The September report also highlights the importance of maintaining growth across different sectors rather than relying on a single source of economic activity.
Industry, Services and Agriculture all remained above the 50-point threshold during the month.
That broad-based performance provides a wider foundation for economic activity.
The industrial recovery is particularly relevant because sustained industrial expansion can support supply chains involving manufacturers, distributors, transport operators, financial institutions and other businesses.
Agriculture's continued expansion also remains important because of its connection to food production and rural economic activity.
Services, meanwhile, continue to provide a large part of the economic activity generated in areas such as education and professional services.
The CBN's September PMI therefore points to a private sector that entered the final quarter of the year with activity still expanding.
The headline composite reading of 53.0 points is higher than the August figure of 52.7, while the three major sectors all remained above 50.
The improvement in new orders and output suggests stronger demand and production conditions.
The employment reading indicates that job creation continued, although at a more moderate pace.
The inventory and supplier-delivery figures point to improvements in the management of business inputs and supply conditions.
At the same time, the rise in input prices and weaker output-price movement indicates that businesses remain exposed to cost pressures.
The combination of these developments will be important to monitor in the months ahead.
If new orders and output remain strong, businesses could maintain the expansion recorded during the third quarter.
If input costs continue to rise faster than output prices, however, companies may face increasing pressure on profitability.
The performance of the nine contracting subsectors will also be important because prolonged weakness in specific industries could limit the broader benefits of the recovery.
For now, the September PMI provides evidence of continued expansion rather than contraction.
Nigeria's composite PMI reached 53.0 points, Industry rose to 52.0, Services stood at 53.2 and Agriculture recorded 53.1.
Twenty-three of the 32 subsectors surveyed expanded.
The figures show that economic activity was strengthening across a wide range of businesses as September came to an end.
They also show that the recovery remains uneven and that rising input costs continue to present a challenge for businesses.
As Nigeria moves further into the final quarter of 2026, the sustainability of the expansion will depend on the ability of businesses to convert stronger demand into higher production, employment and investment while managing the costs associated with operating in the economy.
The latest CBN PMI therefore provides a mixed but important snapshot: economic activity remained in expansion for a fourth consecutive month, demand improved, industry strengthened, services remained positive and agriculture continued its long expansion streak, while cost pressures remained a significant issue for businesses.