By Iroyin Yoruba Television
LAGOS, Nigeria — October 24, 2026
Nigeria recorded a shortfall in petrol supply in September 2026 as daily consumption increased to 44.4 million litres while combined domestic and imported supplies fell to 38.7 million litres, according to figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The data, reported by Nairametrics on October 23, showed that petrol imports declined by 30.1 per cent to 10.2 million litres per day, down from 14.6 million litres in August. Domestic petrol receipts also fell, dropping by 20.6 per cent from 35.9 million litres to 28.5 million litres daily.
The figures point to a supply challenge in a market where demand rose even as both imported and domestically supplied volumes declined.
SUPPLY COVERS ABOUT 87% OF REPORTED CONSUMPTION
Nigeria's combined daily petrol receipts of 38.7 million litres were approximately 5.7 million litres below reported consumption of 44.4 million litres per day.
This means recorded receipts covered about 87.2 per cent of reported demand during the month.
Consumption increased by approximately seven per cent from 41.5 million litres per day in August. The simultaneous decline in domestic receipts and imports therefore widened the pressure on available supply.
The figures measure reported receipts and consumption; the difference should not automatically be interpreted as proof that every location experienced a physical shortage or that the entire gap translated into unmet demand at filling stations.
The regulator's reported stock cover improved from 22.9 days in August to 23.9 days in September. However, it remained below the 30-day benchmark referenced in the report.
IMPORTS HAVE FLUCTUATED SHARPLY THROUGHOUT 2026
Petrol import volumes varied significantly during the first nine months of the year.
Daily imports fell from 24.8 million litres in January to three million litres in February before recovering in subsequent months. They rose to 18.1 million litres in June and peaked at 19.7 million litres in July, before declining to 10.2 million litres in September.
September's import volume was 48.2 per cent below July's peak.
Domestic receipts also fluctuated. They reached 41.5 million litres per day in May, fell to 25.8 million litres in July, recovered in August and then declined again in September.
The movements show that reduced dependence on imported petrol does not, on its own, guarantee sufficient market supply. Domestic refineries must consistently deliver enough usable products to meet demand while import volumes adjust to market requirements.
DOMESTIC REFINING REMAINS CENTRAL TO SUPPLY STABILITY
Nigeria's refining capacity has expanded, including the Dangote refinery's reported increase in crude oil distillation capacity from 650,000 to 700,000 barrels per day following maintenance and expansion work completed in February 2026.
However, crude distillation capacity is not the same as the volume of petrol actually produced and delivered to the domestic market. Output depends on refinery operations, product yields, maintenance, crude availability and distribution arrangements.
September's figures indicate that reported domestic petrol receipts were insufficient to cover consumption without additional supplies.
The data do not establish that a particular refinery caused the shortfall, nor do they identify how much of the gap was attributable to individual producers, imports, inventories or distribution constraints.
IMPORT COSTS AND MARKET PRESSURE
Changes in import volumes also have implications for Nigeria's foreign-exchange demand and petroleum supply chain.
Nairametrics previously reported that the country's petrol import bill rose sharply in the second quarter of 2026, reaching ₦952.15 billion compared with ₦87.40 billion in the first quarter. Those figures reflect the reported value of imports during the respective quarters and should not be confused with the September daily supply data.
For marketers and transport operators, inconsistent availability can complicate procurement and distribution planning. For consumers, supply pressure may contribute to localised price or availability problems, but the September figures alone do not establish a nationwide pump-price increase.
WHAT NEEDS TO CHANGE
The latest data underline the need for reliable refinery output, sufficient inventories and a distribution system capable of moving products to where they are needed.
Regulators and market participants will need to monitor whether domestic supplies recover, whether import volumes adjust to the shortfall and whether stock cover moves closer to the regulator's benchmark.
The figures are for September 2026 and do not establish the current position at every depot or filling station. They nevertheless provide a clear warning that falling imports are not enough to demonstrate improved energy security when total supply remains below reported consumption.
Nigeria's progress towards a more reliable petrol market will depend on consistent product availability and the ability of domestic refining and distribution to meet demand without recurring supply gaps.