Sanwo-Olu Says APC Losing a South-West State Would Not Threaten Nigeria’s Democracy
Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has said the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) losing an election in a South-West state should not be interpreted as a crisis for Nigeria, arguing that the peaceful outcome of the recent Osun governorship election demonstrates that the country's democracy is becoming stronger.
Sanwo-Olu made the remarks while speaking at the seventh annual lecture of Freedom Online in Ikeja, Lagos, where discussions focused on Nigeria's democratic development, the economy, security and preparations for the 2027 general elections.
The governor used the outcome of the August 15 Osun governorship election as an example of what he described as democratic maturity under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The election was won by incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke, who contested on the platform of the Accord Party, defeating the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, by more than 60,000 votes.
For Sanwo-Olu, the fact that an opposition candidate could defeat the ruling party in a strategically important South-West state without the electoral process collapsing demonstrated that Nigeria's democracy was becoming more competitive.
He argued that political power should be capable of changing hands through elections without producing instability or threatening the survival of the democratic system.
Sanwo-Olu Points to Osun as Evidence of Democratic Progress
The governor's central argument was built around the recent Osun election.
Osun is politically significant because it is located in the South-West, the region from which President Tinubu and several influential APC leaders originate.
The APC's defeat therefore attracted considerable attention within Nigeria's political environment.
Rather than describing the result as a setback for democracy, Sanwo-Olu presented it as evidence that democracy was functioning.
He argued that a ruling party losing an election should not automatically be regarded as a national emergency.
According to him, Nigeria had reached a point where political parties could win or lose elections without the losing side attempting to undermine the entire democratic process.
He described this as an indication of a maturing political system.
“There was a time in this country when ‘federal might’ was a phrase that a ruling party used without irony,” Sanwo-Olu said.
He then argued that under Tinubu, the ruling party could lose a South-West state during an election year without the country descending into chaos.
Tinubu’s Reaction to the Osun Result
Sanwo-Olu also pointed to President Tinubu's reaction after the Osun election as evidence supporting his argument.
Following Adeleke's victory, Tinubu congratulated the governor on his re-election.
The President also met with Adeleke at the Presidential Villa in Abuja and encouraged him to work toward uniting the people of Osun State.
For Sanwo-Olu, the reaction was significant.
He suggested that the response demonstrated an acceptance of the principle that electoral victory belongs to voters rather than to whichever political party happens to control the federal government.
The APC's loss in Osun therefore did not lead to a breakdown of government or the democratic system.
Instead, the result was accepted and the elected governor continued with his mandate.
‘The Sky Does Not Fall’
Sanwo-Olu used a striking expression to describe what he believes the Osun result demonstrated.
He said the ruling party could lose a state in the South-West during an election year and “the sky does not fall.”
The statement was intended to emphasise that electoral defeat is a normal feature of democracy.
Political parties cannot be expected to win every election simply because they control the federal government.
In a competitive democratic system, voters must be able to reject candidates and parties they do not support.
The ability of a ruling party to accept such a loss peacefully is therefore an important test of democratic maturity.
Sanwo-Olu Describes Tinubu as a Lifelong Democrat
The Lagos governor strongly defended President Tinubu's democratic credentials.
He described the President as a “lifelong democrat” and said Tinubu wanted to leave Nigeria with a stronger democratic system than the one he inherited.
Sanwo-Olu argued that the President's response to the Osun election provided practical evidence of that commitment.
According to the governor, the peaceful acceptance of an opposition victory in a South-West state was more important than simply which party controlled the state.
He presented the development as an indication that Nigeria's democratic institutions were becoming stronger.
The Importance of Electoral Competition
Competitive elections are one of the fundamental features of a democratic system.
For democracy to function effectively, voters must have genuine choices and the ability to remove elected officials through the ballot box.
Sanwo-Olu's comments therefore placed significant emphasis on the importance of allowing electoral competition to take place without intimidation or manipulation.
A ruling party's loss can actually strengthen democratic credibility when the result is accepted peacefully and institutions function properly.
The Osun election has consequently become an important reference point in discussions about Nigeria's political future.
Sanwo-Olu Warns Against Electoral Violence
While praising the democratic outcome of the Osun election, Sanwo-Olu warned that political competition should never come at the expense of human lives.
He appealed to politicians, political parties and candidates to avoid violence during the 2027 electoral cycle.
According to the governor, no political position is worth the life of a Nigerian.
He stressed that an electoral mandate is only as strong as the process through which it was obtained.
In his view, winning an election through violence, intimidation or manipulation should not be considered a genuine victory.
The warning is particularly relevant as political activity increases ahead of the 2027 general elections.
‘No Office Is Worth a Nigerian Life’
Sanwo-Olu delivered one of his strongest messages when he addressed the relationship between political ambition and human life.
He argued that no political office is worth the death of even one Nigerian.
He also warned that victory achieved through improper means should not be celebrated as a legitimate political triumph.
The statement reflects concerns that political competition in Nigeria can sometimes become violent, particularly when candidates and supporters believe the outcome of an election could determine access to substantial political and economic power.
The governor urged politicians to approach the next election with a commitment to peaceful competition.
Voters Will Judge Governments by Performance
Sanwo-Olu also spoke about the role of voters in determining political outcomes.
He argued that Nigerians increasingly judge elected officials based on their actual performance rather than simply the political party they represent.
The governor pointed to issues such as roads, healthcare and basic public services as examples of the areas voters will consider when deciding how to vote.
He said citizens may not necessarily describe themselves as economists or political analysts, but they understand the practical realities of their communities.
They know whether promised infrastructure was delivered.
They know whether healthcare facilities have adequate personnel.
They know whether government programmes have produced tangible improvements.
These experiences, he argued, will influence how voters behave at polling stations in 2027.
Economic Conditions Will Influence the Election
The economy is expected to be one of the most important issues in the 2027 election.
Nigerians are facing significant concerns over the cost of living, transportation, food prices, employment and household expenses.
Political parties will therefore have to explain how their policies can improve economic conditions.
Sanwo-Olu's comments suggest that performance at the state level will also matter.
Governors and other elected officials will be judged not only by speeches and campaign promises but by what residents can see in their communities.
Infrastructure, healthcare, education, security and employment opportunities could all influence voters' decisions.
The Governor Calls for a Stronger INEC
Sanwo-Olu also stressed the importance of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) being fully prepared for the 2027 elections.
He said the electoral commission must be ready to conduct the elections at every polling unit.
The governor specifically referred to the scheduled election dates of January 16 and February 6, 2027, and urged all stakeholders to contribute to ensuring the process works effectively.
The role of INEC will be crucial in determining whether the 2027 elections are viewed as credible.
The commission will be responsible for voter registration, election administration, result management and numerous logistical operations across Nigeria.
Any significant failure could undermine public confidence.
Technology Has Changed Nigeria’s Electoral Process
Sanwo-Olu also acknowledged the role technology has played in improving elections.
Nigeria has increasingly adopted electronic tools for voter accreditation and election administration.
Technological reforms are intended to make it more difficult to manipulate results and improve the transparency of the voting process.
The governor pointed to these changes alongside legislative reforms as evidence that Nigeria's electoral system has evolved.
However, he also stressed that technology alone cannot guarantee credible elections.
Institutions, political parties, security agencies and voters must all play their respective roles.
The New Electoral Act
Sanwo-Olu referred to Nigeria's electoral reforms, including the Electoral Act 2022 and the newly enacted Electoral Act 2026.
The reforms are intended to strengthen the legal framework governing elections.
Changes to electoral laws can influence the conduct of political parties, candidate selection, voting procedures and result management.
The governor's comments suggest that he sees these reforms as part of a broader process through which Nigeria is gradually strengthening its democratic institutions.
Sanwo-Olu Calls for Electoral Responsibility
The Lagos governor also called on Nigerians to recognise that credible elections require more than government action.
Political parties must respect the rules.
Candidates must avoid inflammatory rhetoric.
Supporters must reject violence.
Security agencies must remain professional.
INEC must perform its responsibilities effectively.
And voters must participate responsibly.
Each of these elements contributes to the credibility of an election.
Failure in one area can undermine confidence in the entire process.
Political Parties Must Accept Defeat
A central lesson from Sanwo-Olu's remarks is that political parties must be prepared to lose elections.
Democracy does not guarantee victory to any party.
Even a ruling party with substantial political influence can lose an election if voters decide to support another candidate.
The real test is how the losing party responds.
If political parties accept legitimate results and seek another opportunity through democratic means, the political system becomes stronger.
If they resort to violence or attempt to undermine institutions, democratic stability becomes more difficult to maintain.
Osun’s Election Has Broader Significance
The Osun election has become more than a state-level political contest.
Its outcome has implications for the wider discussion about the 2027 elections.
Adeleke's victory demonstrated that the APC can be defeated in the South-West.
That fact could influence opposition parties as they plan their strategies for 2027.
It could also encourage voters who believe that their votes can produce changes even in areas traditionally regarded as strongholds of particular political parties.
At the same time, the result could motivate the APC to strengthen its organisation and campaign strategy ahead of the next general election.
APC Still Plans to Compete Strongly
Sanwo-Olu's remarks should not be interpreted as an indication that the APC expects to lose the 2027 elections.
The Lagos governor has previously expressed confidence that the party is preparing seriously for the next election.
He has said the APC's campaign structures in Lagos are working on strategies aimed at securing victory across the state.
The governor therefore appears to be making a broader democratic argument rather than predicting an APC defeat.
His message is that even if the party loses an election, the democratic system should continue functioning normally.
The Difference Between Political Victory and Democratic Stability
Sanwo-Olu's argument highlights an important distinction.
A political party can lose power without the country losing stability.
In fact, peaceful transfers of political power can strengthen democracy.
The health of a democratic system should therefore not be measured solely by whether the ruling party wins.
It should also be measured by whether voters can make independent choices and whether institutions can manage the outcome peacefully.
The Osun election provided an example of that principle.
The Governor Criticises the Idea of a ‘Compliant’ Media
Sanwo-Olu also addressed the role of journalists and the media in a democracy.
He said he did not want a media environment that simply praises those in power.
According to the governor, a compliant media system does not serve the public interest because it can become more interested in flattering political leaders than scrutinising them.
Instead, he called for rigorous journalism that checks facts and holds politicians accountable.
Importantly, he said that scrutiny should also extend to politicians within his own political camp.
‘Check the Facts, Mine Included’
Sanwo-Olu encouraged journalists to examine statements made by political leaders rather than accepting them automatically.
He said facts should be checked even when the claims come from him or other members of his political party.
The governor argued that a strong democracy requires institutions capable of challenging misinformation regardless of where it originates.
His comments come as Nigeria prepares for an increasingly intense political season in which social media is expected to play a major role.
Warning About Fake Videos and Anonymous Accounts
The governor also warned that misinformation could become a major problem ahead of the 2027 elections.
He said some of the most dangerous falsehoods may not come from established news organisations but from anonymous social-media accounts and manipulated videos.
Advances in artificial intelligence and digital editing have made it increasingly easy to create convincing but misleading content.
Such material can spread rapidly before fact-checkers or authorities have an opportunity to respond.
Sanwo-Olu urged journalists and other institutions to play an active role in identifying and challenging such misinformation.
Social Media Could Shape the 2027 Election
Political communication has changed significantly in Nigeria.
Candidates can now communicate directly with millions of voters through social media without relying entirely on traditional campaign structures.
This creates opportunities for greater public engagement but also increases the risk of misinformation.
False claims can be distributed quickly and may influence public opinion before they are corrected.
Political parties and candidates are therefore likely to devote considerable resources to digital campaigns in the lead-up to 2027.
Sanwo-Olu's warning suggests that information integrity will become an important part of the electoral conversation.
The Responsibility of Voters
The governor's remarks also place responsibility on voters.
Citizens will need to examine political claims carefully and distinguish between legitimate campaign messages and deliberately misleading information.
Voters will also have to evaluate politicians based on their records.
Promises made during campaigns will need to be compared with what governments actually delivered.
This could make performance-based politics increasingly important.
2027 Will Test Nigeria’s Democracy
The next general elections will provide another major test of Nigeria's democratic institutions.
The country has held several competitive elections since the return to democracy in 1999, but concerns about electoral violence, vote buying, misinformation and logistical challenges remain.
The 2027 polls will therefore be watched closely both within Nigeria and internationally.
The ability of INEC to conduct credible elections, the willingness of political parties to respect the rules and the response of candidates to electoral outcomes will all influence public confidence.
Sanwo-Olu’s Broader Message
The Lagos governor's speech ultimately focused on the idea that democracy must be bigger than any individual politician or political party.
The APC may win some elections and lose others.
Opposition parties may experience the same.
What matters, according to his argument, is that political competition takes place peacefully and that institutions remain strong enough to manage victories and defeats.
The recent Osun election, in his view, demonstrated that Nigeria is moving in that direction.
What the Osun Result Could Mean for 2027
The APC's defeat in Osun could encourage opposition parties to believe that South-West voters are increasingly willing to consider alternatives.
At the same time, the result could push the ruling party to examine its campaign strategy and reconnect more closely with voters.
For citizens, the development could reinforce the belief that electoral outcomes are not predetermined.
The 2027 election may therefore become even more competitive.
Political Leaders Face Pressure to Deliver
As the election approaches, Nigerians are likely to pay increasing attention to the performance of their elected representatives.
Roads, healthcare, schools, security, employment and other basic services will remain important.
Political parties will have to explain what they have achieved and what they intend to do differently.
Sanwo-Olu's comments suggest that voters should not be treated as passive recipients of political messaging.
They should be regarded as active participants capable of rewarding or rejecting governments through the ballot box.
Peaceful Elections Must Remain the Priority
Ultimately, the governor's strongest appeal was for peaceful politics.
Nigeria has experienced periods in which electoral competition produced violence, loss of life and destruction of property.
Those experiences have demonstrated the dangers of treating elections as a battle that must be won at any cost.
Sanwo-Olu argued that political ambition should never be placed above human life.
The goal should be to compete fiercely over ideas and performance while respecting the right of voters to choose.
A Message About Democratic Maturity
Sanwo-Olu's description of the Osun election as evidence of democratic maturity reflects a broader aspiration for Nigeria's political system.
A mature democracy is one in which governments can lose elections without attempting to destabilise the country.
It is one in which opposition parties can win without fear.
It is one in which political leaders accept legitimate outcomes even when those outcomes are personally or politically disappointing.
And it is one in which voters can change governments through ballots rather than violence.
The Road to January and February 2027
With the 2027 elections approaching, attention will increasingly turn to INEC, political parties, candidates and voters.
The electoral commission must prepare adequately.
Political parties must organise responsibly.
Candidates must campaign peacefully.
Security agencies must protect citizens without becoming partisan.
And voters must remain vigilant against manipulation and misinformation.
Sanwo-Olu's comments suggest that Nigeria's democratic progress will ultimately be measured by how all these actors behave.
Final Takeaway
Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu's message is that an APC defeat in a South-West state should not be treated as a threat to Nigeria's stability.
The recent Osun governorship election, in which Ademola Adeleke defeated the APC candidate, has been presented by the Lagos governor as evidence that political competition can take place without the democratic system collapsing.
He credited President Tinubu's response to the result as evidence of a commitment to democratic principles and described the President as a lifelong democrat.
At the same time, Sanwo-Olu warned that the 2027 elections must be conducted peacefully and transparently.
He called on INEC to be prepared, urged politicians to reject violence and encouraged journalists to rigorously fact-check political claims.
He also warned about the growing threat posed by anonymous online accounts and manipulated videos.
His broader message is that Nigeria's democracy should not depend on any single political party remaining permanently in power.
Parties must be able to win and lose elections.
Citizens must be able to change governments through the ballot box.
And political leaders must accept that electoral defeat is part of democracy.
For Sanwo-Olu, the fact that the ruling party can lose an important South-West election without the country descending into crisis is itself evidence that Nigeria's democratic culture is gradually becoming stronger.
The real test will come in 2027, when Nigerians once again have the opportunity to decide who should represent them at the federal and state levels.