By Iroyin Yoruba Television
Ethiopia has ordered the closure of its embassy in Eritrea and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats from Addis Ababa, sharply escalating diplomatic tensions between the two neighbouring countries as renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia raises fears of a wider regional crisis.
The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the measures on Thursday, October 1, declaring the 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata and ordering them to leave Ethiopia within 48 hours.
Addis Ababa accused the diplomats of involvement in activities it said posed a direct threat to Ethiopia's national security and violated the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.
Ethiopia also announced that it was closing its embassy in Asmara, Eritrea's capital.
The diplomatic measures came as fighting continued in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region and explosions were reported in Addis Ababa.
The Ethiopian government has accused Eritrea, along with Sudan and Egypt, of supporting an opposition alliance led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front.
The countries accused by Addis Ababa have denied the allegations.
The latest diplomatic actions represent a serious deterioration in relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, two countries whose relationship has been shaped by war, peace agreements, border disputes and longstanding political tensions.
TEN ERITREAN DIPLOMATS ORDERED TO LEAVE
The Ethiopian government gave the 10 Eritrean diplomats 48 hours to leave the country.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said they had been involved in activities that posed a direct threat to Ethiopia's national security.
However, the ministry did not publicly provide detailed information about the specific activities attributed to each diplomat.
The diplomats were instead declared persona non grata, a diplomatic term used by a host country to formally reject a foreign diplomat and require that person to leave.
The measure is one of the more serious steps a government can take against foreign diplomatic representatives without completely breaking diplomatic relations.
In this case, however, Ethiopia went further by simultaneously ordering the closure of its embassy in Asmara.
That decision indicates that Addis Ababa considers the situation significantly more serious than an ordinary diplomatic disagreement.
The Ethiopian government said the decision was taken in response to what it described as direct and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence by Eritrea.
Eritrea has rejected accusations of supporting forces against the Ethiopian government.
ETHIOPIA CLOSES ITS EMBASSY IN ASMARA
The closure of the Ethiopian embassy in Eritrea removes one of the main formal channels through which the two governments communicate.
Embassies serve several important functions.
They provide diplomatic communication between governments, assist citizens, facilitate political and economic contacts and help manage disputes.
When an embassy closes, communication between the two countries becomes more difficult.
Other diplomatic channels may remain available, including communication through foreign ministries or third countries.
However, the closure is still a significant diplomatic signal.
For citizens of either country living or travelling in the other, the reduction of normal diplomatic services could create additional challenges.
Consular assistance, document processing and other routine services may have to be handled through alternative arrangements.
The closure also demonstrates how rapidly relations can deteriorate when diplomatic disagreements become connected to military developments.
ERITREA CUTS DIPLOMATIC TIES
Eritrea subsequently announced that it was severing diplomatic ties with Ethiopia, turning the dispute into an open diplomatic rupture.
The move followed Ethiopia's decision to close its embassy in Asmara and expel Eritrean diplomats.
The tit-for-tat actions represent a major deterioration in relations between the neighbours.
The two countries have a complicated history.
They fought a major border war between 1998 and 2000, and relations remained hostile for years afterward.
A major diplomatic breakthrough occurred in 2018 when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki agreed to restore relations.
That period of rapprochement brought the reopening of borders and the restoration of diplomatic links.
The latest crisis demonstrates how fragile that reconciliation has become.
RENEWED FIGHTING IN TIGRAY
The diplomatic confrontation is taking place against the background of renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia.
The Tigray region was the centre of a devastating civil war between Ethiopia's federal government and forces associated with the Tigray People's Liberation Front from 2020 to 2022.
The conflict ended with a peace agreement that reduced large-scale fighting.
However, political and security tensions have continued.
The latest fighting has raised concerns that the region could once again descend into a wider conflict.
Tigrayan forces have reportedly seized important positions, while Ethiopian federal forces have continued military operations.
The developments have created new concerns among residents and international organisations.
The renewed conflict is particularly sensitive because of the region's recent history.
Hundreds of thousands of people were killed during the 2020-2022 war, according to various estimates, while millions were displaced and humanitarian conditions deteriorated severely.
A return to large-scale conflict could therefore have major humanitarian consequences.
ETHIOPIA ACCUSES ERITREA OF SUPPORTING REBELS
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting forces opposed to the federal government.
The Ethiopian government has also accused Sudan and Egypt of backing an opposition alliance led by the TPLF.
The allegations have not been accepted by the countries named.
Eritrea has rejected Ethiopia's accusations.
The dispute over alleged external support is particularly significant because Ethiopia and Eritrea have previously been directly involved in conflict.
Any military or logistical support provided across the border could change the balance of forces in northern Ethiopia.
It could also increase the possibility of the conflict spreading beyond Tigray.
The Ethiopian government's decision to expel Eritrean diplomats therefore comes against an already tense security environment.
EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN ADDIS ABABA
The diplomatic crisis intensified further after explosions were reported in Addis Ababa.
The reports added to concerns that the conflict in northern Ethiopia could have consequences beyond the immediate battlefield.
The Ethiopian government has also imposed restrictions affecting drone operations in parts of the country.
The exact circumstances surrounding the reported explosions remain subject to investigation.
The events nevertheless contributed to the sense of heightened insecurity.
For Ethiopia's government, the possibility of attacks in the capital increases the pressure to prevent the conflict from spreading.
For residents, reports of explosions create additional concerns about personal safety and the stability of the country.
The combination of fighting in Tigray, accusations involving neighbouring states and security incidents in Addis Ababa has therefore produced a rapidly changing situation.
THE LEGACY OF THE 1998-2000 WAR
The current crisis cannot be separated from the history of Ethiopia-Eritrea relations.
The two countries fought a devastating border war between 1998 and 2000.
The conflict centred on disputed territory around Badme and other border areas.
Although a peace agreement was eventually reached, relations remained hostile for many years.
The border remained heavily militarised.
Travel and trade between the two countries were restricted.
Diplomatic relations were effectively frozen.
The situation changed dramatically in 2018 when Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopian prime minister.
Abiy pursued reconciliation with Eritrea and reached an agreement with President Isaias Afwerki.
The rapprochement was internationally welcomed and contributed to Abiy receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
For a period, relations between the two countries improved considerably.
The latest crisis therefore represents a reversal of a relationship that had once been presented as a major example of regional reconciliation.
THE 2018 PEACE AGREEMENT
The 2018 rapprochement opened Ethiopia's borders with Eritrea and restored diplomatic links.
Flights between the two countries resumed, telephone connections were restored and political contacts increased.
The agreement was regarded as an important step toward reducing tensions in the Horn of Africa.
However, the relationship later became complicated by developments surrounding the Tigray conflict.
Eritrean forces participated in the conflict alongside Ethiopian federal forces during the 2020-2022 war, according to international investigations and reporting.
Their involvement became a major source of controversy.
The Pretoria peace agreement that ended the main phase of the Tigray conflict did not eliminate all political tensions.
The latest fighting demonstrates that unresolved issues remain.
The deterioration of Ethiopia-Eritrea relations therefore has roots in both historical disputes and recent political developments.
REGIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS
The crisis has implications beyond Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The Horn of Africa includes several countries facing security, political and economic challenges.
Ethiopia is one of Africa's largest countries by population and has significant regional influence.
Eritrea controls a strategic stretch of the Red Sea coastline.
Sudan is experiencing its own devastating civil war.
Djibouti hosts military bases belonging to several international powers and sits near important maritime routes.
Somalia continues to face security challenges involving militant groups.
Developments in one country can therefore have consequences for the wider region.
A new Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict could potentially affect refugees, trade routes, humanitarian operations and regional security.
The possibility of increased displacement is particularly concerning because neighbouring countries are already dealing with large refugee populations.
THE HUMANITARIAN RISK
The greatest immediate concern for civilians is the possibility of renewed large-scale fighting.
The previous Tigray war caused extensive humanitarian suffering.
Food supplies were disrupted, health facilities were damaged and millions of people required humanitarian assistance.
Renewed fighting could make access to affected communities more difficult.
Humanitarian organisations have called for protection of civilians and access to essential services.
The current situation has already affected normal life in parts of Tigray.
Reports indicate disruptions to fuel, cash availability and other basic services.
For civilians, the consequences of political and military decisions can quickly become practical problems involving food, transport, healthcare and personal safety.
The international community is therefore monitoring developments closely.
EFFECTS ON TRADE AND TRANSPORT
Diplomatic tensions can also affect economic activity.
Ethiopia and Eritrea have historically traded across their shared border.
The 2018 rapprochement created expectations that trade and transportation links could expand.
A new deterioration in relations could reverse those gains.
Border crossings could face additional restrictions.
Transport operators could experience delays.
Businesses operating across the border could face uncertainty.
The closure of the Ethiopian embassy in Asmara could also affect commercial contacts because diplomatic missions often facilitate communication between businesses and government agencies.
If military tensions increase, the economic effects could extend beyond the two countries.
Regional trade routes could be disrupted, while higher security risks could increase transportation costs.
RED SEA IMPLICATIONS
Eritrea's location on the Red Sea gives the crisis a wider strategic dimension.
The Red Sea is an important international shipping route connecting the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal with the Indian Ocean.
The region has already experienced security challenges involving attacks on commercial shipping.
Any deterioration in security around the Horn of Africa could therefore attract international attention.
Eritrea's coastline and proximity to the Bab el-Mandeb strait give it strategic importance.
Ethiopia, although landlocked since Eritrea's independence, has maintained strong interest in gaining reliable access to maritime trade.
The issue of access to the sea has been an important element of Ethiopia's regional policy.
Disagreements over maritime access have contributed to tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
DIPLOMATIC CHANNELS UNDER PRESSURE
The closure of the Ethiopian embassy and the expulsion of diplomats reduce the normal channels available for communication.
In times of crisis, diplomatic communication is particularly important.
Governments need ways to clarify military movements, address misunderstandings and negotiate humanitarian arrangements.
When formal diplomatic relations deteriorate, countries may rely increasingly on intermediaries.
International organisations, neighbouring states and other governments can sometimes provide channels for dialogue.
The African Union could also have an important role because both Ethiopia and Eritrea are members of the organisation.
Regional diplomatic initiatives could help prevent further escalation.
However, the willingness of the parties to engage will ultimately determine whether such efforts can succeed.
AFRICAN UNION'S POTENTIAL ROLE
The African Union is headquartered in Addis Ababa, making Ethiopia a particularly important country within the continental organisation.
The AU has previously been involved in efforts to support peace in the Horn of Africa.
Its position could become important if the current confrontation develops into a broader conflict.
The organisation's principles include peaceful resolution of disputes and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of member states.
An escalation between Ethiopia and Eritrea would therefore present a major diplomatic challenge for the AU.
The organisation could potentially encourage dialogue, support humanitarian access and work with regional partners to prevent the conflict from spreading.
Other African countries could also play supporting roles.
INTERNATIONAL CONCERN
The developments have attracted international attention because of the risk of a wider regional crisis.
Governments and international organisations have an interest in preventing another major conflict in the Horn of Africa.
The United Nations has previously supported humanitarian operations and peace initiatives involving Ethiopia and the wider region.
A renewed war could require significant international humanitarian resources.
It could also create additional refugee flows into neighbouring countries.
The international community is therefore likely to monitor military developments and diplomatic statements closely.
ETHIOPIA'S MESSAGE
Despite announcing the closure of its embassy and the expulsion of diplomats, Ethiopia said it continued to value its historical and cultural ties with Eritrea.
The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry also stated that it remained committed to peaceful coexistence, regional stability and integration.
That message is significant because it leaves open the possibility of eventual diplomatic engagement despite the current rupture.
The government's actions demonstrate the seriousness with which it views the alleged security threats.
Its accompanying language about peaceful coexistence indicates that Addis Ababa does not necessarily present the diplomatic measures as an abandonment of long-term regional peace.
The practical question will be whether the two governments can eventually return to dialogue.
ERITREA'S RESPONSE
Eritrea's decision to sever diplomatic ties represents a significant escalation.
The move indicates that Asmara rejects Ethiopia's allegations and has chosen to respond to the diplomatic measures with its own rupture.
The two governments now face a much more difficult environment for resolving disagreements.
Without normal diplomatic relations, communication becomes more complicated.
Any military incident along the border could carry greater risks because direct channels for clarification may be weaker.
This makes regional and international mediation potentially more important.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
The immediate priority will be preventing the diplomatic confrontation from developing into a wider military conflict.
The 48-hour deadline given to the expelled Eritrean diplomats will proceed while both governments assess their next steps.
At the same time, military developments in Tigray will continue to shape the diplomatic situation.
If fighting intensifies, pressure on Eritrea and Ethiopia from regional and international actors could increase.
If the fighting decreases, diplomatic channels could potentially reopen.
Humanitarian organisations will also be watching developments closely because access to affected communities could become increasingly difficult.
A FRAGILE REGIONAL SITUATION
The latest Ethiopia-Eritrea confrontation demonstrates how quickly diplomatic relations can deteriorate when political disputes intersect with military conflict.
The two countries moved from open hostility to reconciliation in 2018.
They are now once again exchanging serious accusations and cutting diplomatic ties.
The history shows that relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have repeatedly changed according to political and security developments.
The current crisis therefore carries significant risks.
A prolonged confrontation could affect civilians in Tigray, disrupt trade, increase displacement and create additional pressure across the Horn of Africa.
A wider war could also affect neighbouring countries already dealing with serious security and humanitarian challenges.
THE IMPORTANCE OF DIALOGUE
The Ethiopian government has said it remains committed to peaceful resolution of disputes, while Eritrea's diplomatic response has further complicated the situation.
Maintaining or restoring communication will therefore be important.
Diplomacy cannot eliminate all disagreements, but it provides mechanisms through which governments can communicate during crises.
For Ethiopia and Eritrea, that communication will be particularly important because of their shared border and history of armed conflict.
The international community will likely continue encouraging both sides to avoid actions that could turn the current diplomatic rupture into a larger military confrontation.
For civilians in the region, the consequences of escalation could be severe.
For governments, the challenge is to protect national interests while preventing another devastating war.
A NEW TEST FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA
Ethiopia's decision to close its embassy in Eritrea and expel 10 diplomats has opened a new and uncertain chapter in relations between the two countries.
The action followed accusations of hostile activities and alleged external support for forces fighting Ethiopia's federal government.
Eritrea has rejected the accusations and responded by severing diplomatic ties.
At the same time, fighting continues in northern Ethiopia, increasing the possibility that the diplomatic crisis could become connected to a wider military confrontation.
The history of the two countries demonstrates both the dangers of escalation and the possibility of reconciliation.
The 2018 peace agreement showed that even deeply hostile relationships can change through political dialogue.
The present situation now tests whether diplomatic mechanisms can once again prevent a return to prolonged conflict.
For the people of Ethiopia, Eritrea and the wider Horn of Africa, the stakes are significant.
The immediate focus will be on developments in Tigray, the actions of the two governments, the movement of military forces and international efforts to encourage dialogue.
The coming days will determine whether the current diplomatic rupture remains limited to official relations or develops into a broader regional crisis.
For now, Ethiopia has closed its embassy in Asmara, expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and accused Eritrea of actions threatening its national security.
Eritrea has responded by severing diplomatic relations.
The diplomatic relationship that was restored with high hopes in 2018 is now under its most serious strain in years.